ABSTRACT: Multiple transmission line outages that occur together are rarer than single line outages but have a larger impact on the power transmission network, and increasingly need to be accounted for when assessing resilience to blackouts.
The multiple line outages show a variety of spatial patterns in the power network. Some of these spatial patterns form network contingency motifs, which we define as the patterns of multiple outages that occur much more frequently than multiple outages chosen randomly from the network. k line outages occurring together is called an N-k contingency. We show that ch
oosing N-k contingencies from these commonly occurring contingency motifs accounts for most of the probability of multiple initiating line outages. This result is demonstrated using historical outage data. It enables N-k contingency lists that are much more efficient in accounting for the likely multiple initiating outages than exhaustive listing or random selection. The N-k contingency lists constructed from motifs can improve risk estimation in cascading outage simulations and help to confirm utility contingency selection. This work is collaborative with Kai Zhou at Soochow University and Zhaoyu Wang at Iowa State University.
BIO: Ian Dobson was educated at Cambridge University (BA Math) and Cornell University (PhD Electrical Engineering). He worked for 5 years as a systems analyst in Britain for EASAMS Ltd., including contract work for the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority. He was faculty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison from 1989 to 2011. He is currently Sandbulte professor in the electrical and computer engineering department at Iowa State University. Ian is a Fellow of the IEEE. Ian has worked on voltage collapse blackouts, power system stability, power electronics, and applications of bifurcations and nonlinear dynamics. He is currently interested in data analytics, complex systems, power system blackouts and resilience, and is developing a probabilistic risk analysis for power systems subject to extreme weather and cascading failure. Details and publications are available at http://iandobson.ece.iastate.edu
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