Title: Probabilistic forecasting of locational marginal price and transmission congestion under uncertainties in wholesale electricity markets
Speaker: Rui Bo, senior engineer, Mid-continent Independent Transmission System Operator (MISO)
Abstract: Two-thirds of the U.S. electricity customers are served by independent system operators through wholesale electricity markets, and locational marginal price (LMP) is the fundamental pricing mechanism to ensure economically efficient operation of the energy markets. LMP forecasting constitutes the basis for business operation and decision making of market participants; however, forecasted LMPs are highly sensitive to uncertainty and variations in system conditions such as load and intermittent renewable resources. Therefore, market participants face significant risk in interpreting and utilizing LMPs forecasted through deterministic approaches. To evaluate the risk, this presentation will firstly unravel the LMP step-change phenomenon, then locate the step changes through efficient algorithms, and finally present a probability-based analytical model to accurately quantify the risks associated with forecasted LMPs. This framework helps to reshape the way in which price forecasting is conventionally understood, and to assist market participants in developing bidding strategy and risk hedging policies. The presentation will also discuss continuing and future researches in closely related areas such as power system secure operation under uncertainties, and next-generation electricity market simulation platform.
Speaker Bio: Dr. Bo received the B.E. and M.E. degrees in electric power engineering from Southeast University (China) in 2000 and 2003, respectively, and received the Ph.D. degree at The University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) in 2009. He worked at ZTE Corporation and Shenzhen Cermate Technologies Inc. from 2003 to 2005, respectively. He has been employed at Mid-continent Independent Transmission System Operator (MISO) at Eagan Minnesota since 2009, where he is presently a senior engineer and project manager.
Dr. Bo is a senior member of IEEE. His research interests include advanced power system analysis and computational methods, renewable energy integration, and electricity markets and energy policies. He has authored and co-authored over 50 technical papers in peer reviewed journals and international conferences. He is an associate editor of International Journal of Power and Energy Systems, and a reviewer for a number of journals.
Dr. Bo was the recipient of MISO Outstanding Achievement Award, and 2012 IEEE Twin Cities Section Outstanding Engineer Award.